【作者简介】文太林，张金峰，河北工业大学人文与法律学院

【文章来源】《社会学评论》2025年第1期

【内容提要】数字技术的不断变革对劳动就业产生了深刻影响，这是否 会带来民众福利态度的变化？本文基于中国社会状况综合调查数据，实证检验了数字化职业替代风险对福利态度的影响及作用机制，研究发现： 第一，随着数字化职业替代概率的增大，劳动者对政府福利责任偏好增强、对社会保障水平的期望提高、对社会保障的满意度降低。第二，数字化职业替代风险通过提高劳动者对失业风险预期和降低对经济地位的预期影响福利态度。第三，数字化职业替代风险对福利态度的影响在不同经济社会地位和就业群体中具有异质性。社会政策改革应关注数字时代 劳动者的福利态度，政府应夯实劳动保障制度，加强人力资本投资以提升劳动者就业能力。

【关键词】数字化 / 职业替代风险 / 福利态度

【全文链接】http://src.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V13/I1/219

Digitalization and Welfare Attitude Transformation: Empirical Evidence from CSS (2015-2021) Data

Abstract: The continuous transformation of digital technology has profoundly impacted on labor employment. Will this bring about changes in public attitudes towards welfare? This article is based on CSS data to test the impact and mechanism of digital occupational substitution risk on welfare attitudes. This research has found that, firstly, as the probability of digital occupational substitution increases, it increases workers’preference for government welfare responsibilities, increases their expectations for social security levels, and reduces their satisfaction with social security. Secondly, the risk of digital occupational substitution has an impact on welfare attitudes by increasing workers’expectations of unemployment risk and reducing their expectations of economic status. Thirdly, the impact of digital occupational substitution risk on welfare attitudes is heterogeneous among different economic and social status groups and employment types. Research suggests that social policy reform should focus on the welfare attitudes of workers in the digital age, and the government should strengthen risk management of social security, and increase investment in human capital.