【作者简介】刘建娥、凌巍，云南大学民族学与社会学学院

【文章来源】《社会学研究》2023年第3期

【内容提要】我国城镇化从以追求收入增长的市场性流动开始转向家庭式就近迁移的社会性流动新阶段。本文基于2011—2018年全国流动人口动态监测数据，采用年龄—时期—世代效应模型，检视流动人口的主体选择与城镇化政策驱动的互动效应。研究发现，年龄效应呈现“倒U形”轨迹，时期效应体现为“V形”波动中总体向上的态势，世代效应则反映了新生代就近县域城镇化偏好。总体来看，县域流动人口的占比偏低，亟待通过结构性优化构建社会性流动重大转向的系统性方案，以回应国家发展战略，消弭“拆分型生产体制”的形成机制及社会风险，重塑新型城乡关系。

【关键词】县域城镇化；市场性流动；社会性流动；年龄—时期—世代效应模型

【基金项目】本研究为国家社会科学基金项目“欠发达地区新型城镇化进程中的社区转型研究”（19BRK035）、云南大学青年英才项目和云南大学“中国乡村社会大调查（云南）(CRSS)的研究成果。

【全文链接】http://shxyj.ajcass.org/Magazine/?Year="2023&Issue=3

The Re-decision of China's County Urbanization: A Major Turn and Systematic Construction of Social Mobility

Abstract:China's urbanization has begun to shift from market-based mobility in pursuit of income growth to a new stage of social mobility with family-based proximity migration. Based on the data from China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2011 to 2018, this paper adopts the age-period-generation effect model to examine the interaction between the choice of the floating population and urbanization policy drive. It is found that the age effect shows an inverted "U-shaped" trajectory, the period effect reflects a general upward trend in a "V-shaped" fluctuation, and the generation effect reflects the new generation's preference for urbanization in the nearby counties. In general, the proportion of floating population in the county is low, and there is a gap with the national development strategy.There is an urgent need to build a systematic solution for a major shift in social mobility through structural optimization, to eliminate the formation mechanism and social risks of the "highly-divided production system", and to reshape a new urban-rural relationship.