【作者简介】蔡韦成 北京大学光华管理学院社会研究中心;谢宇 北京大学光华管理学院社会研究中心、美国普林斯顿大学社会学系

【文章来源】《社会》2024年第1期

【内容提要】当今中国，子女在家庭中仍处于中心位置，父母对子女福祉的重视会影响其生育决策。本文使用中国综合社会调查（CGSS）2010—2018年数据，考察了宏观社会流动性对生育意愿的影响。研究结果表明，相对流动性与期望子女数显著正相关，主观态度是重要的中介影响机制。从子代地位预期与抚育成本预期的视角出发，相对流动性的影响呈负社会经济梯度，但流动性的提升不会抑制高社会阶层的生育意愿；性别差异在社会化视角中被强调，男性受流动性的影响更强，并且流动性与期望男孩数关联更加密切。本研究从宏观层面丰富了对低生育率现象的理解，对从微观层面分析流动效应的研究也有借鉴意义。本文认为，机会公平政策应当作为当下中国生育促进政策的一个重要构成。

【关 键 词】生育意愿, 代际流动, 相对流动, 子女中心主义

【全文链接】https://www.society.shu.edu.cn/CN/Y2024/V44/I1/178

Raising Hope：The Impact of Intergenerational Mobility on Fertility Desire in China

Abstract: Children play such a crucial role in Chinese families that their future socioeconomic prospects significantly influence parents' reproductive decision. Drawing on the data from the 2010-2018 Chinese General Social Survey （CGSS），this study investigates the impact of macro-level intergenerational mobility on fertility intentions. The findings reveal a positive association between relative mobility and desired family size. Mediation analysis highlights the importance of subjective attitudes，including expected social status，subjective well-being，and societal evaluations. Additionally，analyses along socio-economic gradients demonstrate a diminishing effect of relative mobility with increasing socio-economic status，though it remains non-negative among high socio-economic groups. Furthermore，there are gender differences，with a more pronounced pattern observed among men than women，particularly regarding the preference for male offspring. Finally，the method of instrumental variable mitigates attenuation biases from measurement errors. This study advances our understanding of macro-level determinants of fertility intentions and underscores the significance of mobility opportunities for fertility policy considerations.

Key words: fertility desire, intergenerational mobility, relative mobility, child-centered familism