【作者简介】吴 菲，巫 冰，复旦大学社会学系

【文章来源】《社会学评论》2025年第3期

【内容提要】本研究聚焦于中国民众对社会整体代际流动状况的感知，基于排序相关的分析框架，采用情境准实验法构建了代际收入与代际教育流动信念的测量，并将它们与对应的客观流动指标进行比较，以准确估计流动信念感知偏差模式。研究结果揭示了中国民众社会流动感知的复杂性：第一，人们高估了中下出身子代向上流动的可能性，在教育维度尤其如此；第二，人们低估了教育地位的代际继承性（主观的亲代-子代教育排序相关度低于客观水平）；第三，人们高估了收入地位的代际继承性（主观的亲代-子代收入排序相关度高于客观水平）。多层线性模型分析结果进一步显示，上述感知偏差并不因被访者特征不同而变化，可能是普遍存在的。

【关键词】社会流动信念 / 社会开放度 / 感知偏差 / 排序相关

【全文链接】http://src.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V13/I3/27

Over-Estimation or Under-Estimation:Social Mobility Beliefs and Related Perceptual Inaccuracy in China

Abstract: This study focuses on the evaluation of the overall social mobility in China. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we construct educational and income mobility beliefs measures and compared them with corresponding objective mobility indicators to accurately estimate patterns of perceptual bias. The comparison between subjective and objective indicators reveals the complexity of mobility belief biases: (1)Upward biased belief of absolute mobility, where people overestimate the likelihood of upward mobility from lower family background, particularly for educational mobility; (2)Upward biased belief of relative educational mobility, where people underestimate the intergenerational persistence of education status (subjective parent-child educational rank-rank correlation is lower than it’s parallel objective indicator); (3)Downward biased belief of relative income mobility, where people overestimate the intergenerational persistence of income status (subjective parent-child income rank-rank correlation is higher than it’s parallel objective indicator).Results from the multilevel linear model analysis further confirm that the aforementioned patterns of perceptual bias do not vary according to respondent characteristics and may therefore be widespread.