【作者简介】干一卿，中国人民大学社会学院；王鹏，北京大学社会学系

【文章来源】《社会学研究》2026年第3期

【内容提要】既有研究较多关注机会信念的形成，却较少探讨其对个体发展的影响。在中国情境下分析机会信念的效用，对引导积极的社会心态、畅通社会向上流动渠道具有现实意义。本研究以 2010 年中国家庭追踪调查数据中的 18~45 岁群体为样本，考察机会信念及其组合对其在 2010—2022 年代内流动结果的影响。结果显示，优绩主义信念能促进农民阶层向上流动，但兼有宿命主义信念会阻碍其流动；混合型机会信念对一般非农阶层的代内向上流动具有显著促进作用。本研究构建阶层视角下的“可控性感知”理论框架，以阐释上述发现。本文尝试推动学界与公众对机会信念与阶层流动、社会公平之间关系的思考。

【关键词】优绩主义信念；宿命主义信念；结构主义信念；代内；流动；阶层差异

【全文链接】https://shxyj.ajcass.com/Magazine/show/?id=122855

“Man Makes, Fate Disposes”: Opportunity Beliefs and Intragenerational Mobility Outcomes in China

Abstract: Existing studies have primarily focused on the formation of opportunity beliefs, with limited attention to their impact on individuals’ developmental processes and outcomes. Examining this issue within the context of Chinese society is of practical significance for guiding positive social mindsets and facilitating upward social mobility. Drawing on data from the 18-45 age group in the 2010 China Family Panel Studies, this study examines the impact of opportunity beliefs on their intragenerational mobility outcomes over the period 2010—2022. The findings show that among farmers, meritocratic beliefs promote upward mobility, but the coexistence of fatalistic beliefs hinders such mobility; mixed opportunity beliefs significantly promote the intragenerational upward mobility of the general non-agricultural class. This paper establishes a theoretical framework of “perceived controllability ”from a class perspective to explain these findings. This paper attempts to promote academic and public reflections on the relationship between opportunity beliefs,class mobility and social equity.