【作者简介】蔡锶墁，香港中文大学社会科学院社会学系

【文章来源】《社会学评论》2025年第1期

【内容提要】新制度主义学者普遍认为，“世界社会”的制度规范扩散到各国的程度是解释国家间科学成就差异的关键因素。然而，现有研究在实证检验中并未区分科学制度同构与实际科学成果，这一混淆导致既有 研究未能充分考察哪些因素会约束制度扩散对一国实际科学成果的影响。本研究引入国家能力这一变量，检验它对国家科学成就的作用及对制度扩散效应的潜在制约或干扰作用。本研究使用跨国比较数据，采用混合效应模型来回应上述问题。研究发现，国家能力是一个干扰变量，既有分析框架对它的忽视导致制度扩散的效果被高估，实际上，国家能力的解释效力远大于制度扩散效应；强国家能力可能放大嵌入“世界社会”的积极效应， 但这一交互效应未达到统计显著性。本研究作为探索性尝试，将宏观视角的定量分析重新带回到现有文献脉络，为新制度主义社会学关于科学成就差异的解释框架提供了新的视角。

【关键词】国家科学成就 / 国家能力 / 制度扩散 / 跨国比较

【全文链接】http://src.ruc.edu.cn/CN/Y2025/V13/I1/76

Institutional Diffusion and State Capacity: Rethinking Cross-National Differences in Scientific Achievements (2013-2023)

Abstract: Neo-institutionalists argue that the extent to which nation-states are integrated into the‘world society’through institutional diffusion plays a crucial role in explaining cross-national variation in scientific achievements. However, existing studies fail to distinguish between scientific institutional isomorphism and actual scientific outcomes. This conflation has hindered the development of theoretical frameworks, overlooking factors that might confound or moderate the impact of institutional diffusion on actual scientific progress. This paper introduces state capacity as a key variable to refine the existing explanatory models. Using cross-national data, the study applies a mixed-effects model for empirical analysis. The findings suggest that state capacity acts as a confounding variable, leading to an overestimation of the effect of institutional diffusion when it is not properly ac⁃ counted for. The explanatory power of state capacity far exceeds that of institutional diffusion. While stronger state capacity may enhance the positive effects of integration into the world society, this interaction effect does not reach statistical significance. This study revisits prior research and provides a fresh perspective on the neo-institutional framework for scientific progress. It also addresses the shortage of macro-level quantitative cross-national studies in recent literature of neo-in⁃ stitutionalism and the sociology of science.