【作者简介】吕付华，云南大学民族学与社会学学院

【文章来源】《社会学研究》2023年第5期

【内容提要】本文回顾了卢曼的风险研究，从集时间、事实、社会三维为一体的系统理论解析其风险图景：风险作为言说未来不确定性的时间语义，是社会诸系统随着现代性转型不得不在二阶观察下决策出现的；应从系统决策的内在归因来定义风险，以区别于外在环境归因的危险概念；受决策者/波及者的社会差异影响，一系统的风险可能是另一系统的危险；任何一个子系统都无力独自为风险负责，只有结构耦合与透明观察才能应对未知。对卢曼风险图景及其盲点的探究有助于风险反思。

【关 键 词】卢曼；风险；系统理论

【项目基金】本文系云南省哲学社会科学规划项目“疫情防控与风险治理研究——卢曼风险社会学理论的启示”（YB2020037）成果。。

【全文链接】http://shxyj.ajcass.org/Magazine/?Year=2023&Issue=5

Second-order Observations and Their Limitations of Risk: An Analysis of Luhmann's Sociological Theory of Risk

Abstract：Niklas Luhmann's theory of risk is highly respected but obscure. Based on a historical review of risk research, this article interprets Luhmann's perspectives through systems theory which integrated temporal, factual and social dimensions. As a temporal semantic used to describe future uncertainty, risk is a neologism accompanying by modern transformation and that all social systems must make decisions with second-order observations. Risk can be defined as the internal attribution of possible facts caused by system's decision, while a possible fact caused by the environment can be called danger. The perception and communication of risk are restricted by decision makers and those affected, and the risk of one system may be the danger of another. None of systems can be fully responsible for the risk, only the structural coupling and transparent observations could cope with the unknown. The analysis of Luhmann's perspectives and blind spots will address more reflections on risk.